Happy November, y'all! The Halloween candy is on clearance, and somewhere out there a store already has a 12-foot inflatable Santa set up by the front door.
So yes, holiday shopping season is officially here. A pile of new surveys just came out, and one trend jumps right off the page.
A whole lot of us plan to add one very special person to the gift list this year: ourselves.
Retailers Are Expecting a Trillion-Dollar Season
The National Retail Federation expects November and December retail sales to grow 4.2% over 2025, for a total of $1.013 trillion. That's trillion, with a T.
For comparison, 2025 holiday sales grew 3.1% to $972 billion. If this year's forecast holds, it would be the fastest growth since 2021.
Some of that is higher prices doing the heavy lifting, though. NRF's chief economist said inflation is part of the sales growth, and higher diesel and memory prices are pushing up costs on popular gifts like electronics.
"Treat Yourself" Is Now a Holiday Tradition
The fun part: the holiday edition of EY-Parthenon's Consumer Sentiment Survey, released October 29, found that 41% of consumers plan to buy themselves a holiday gift this year.
Among people ages 19 to 34, that jumps to 53%. More than half! The younger crowd isn't waiting around for someone else to pick out the right present.
Honestly, it makes sense. You already know your size, you know the color you want, and you'll never have to fake a smile while opening it.
Experiences vs. Stuff: The Surveys Don't Agree
Here's where it gets funny. Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey says half of shoppers plan to give an experience, up 11 percentage points from 2024. Restaurant gift cards and in-person meals top that list at 37%.
EY's survey tells a different story. Only 21% of the people it asked plan to give experiences, and 51% plan to focus on physical gifts.
The math doesn't line up, and that's okay. Different surveys ask different people different questions. The safe bet is that both the gift card and the wrapped box under the tree are sticking around.
Shoppers Are Getting Creative With Budgets
People still plan to spend, but they're making trade-offs to do it. According to EY:
- Nearly half are cutting back on eating out and entertainment.
- About one in three are spending less on electronics and travel.
- 27% say their main move, if prices go up, is waiting for sales.
A NerdWallet survey found 86% of holiday spenders plan to use at least one money-saving strategy, and using coupons (42%) and shopping sales (41%) top the list.
How much are people spending? Again, it depends who you ask. Deloitte puts the average household at $1,654 for the season, up 4% from last year. NerdWallet says gift buyers expect to spend $879 on average, down from $1,107 in 2025.
The Early Birds Are Already Out There
If you feel like everyone else got a head start, you're not wrong. NRF says 43% of holiday shoppers planned to start before November even arrived.
Deloitte also found that 22% of shoppers plan to start earlier than they did last year.
Mark your calendar: Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26, so Black Friday lands on November 27. That leaves less than four weeks before the big deal weekend.
Austin's Take
I'm completely on board with self-gifting. If you've had a year, and let's be real, most of us have, buying yourself that one thing you've been staring at online isn't selfish. It's maintenance.
I also love that people are getting smarter with their money. Cutting back on a few dinners out so you can be generous with the people you love feels like the holiday spirit to me. And the experiences-vs.-stuff debate? Do both. Put a restaurant gift card inside a fuzzy pair of socks and call it a win.
So tell me: are you buying yourself something this holiday season, and what's at the top of your own wish list? Let me know in the comments!
